The Probability that there is a Creator God
Clifford Denton

Christians are facing a growing challenge from those who promote a theory of evolution. The Scripture, seeking to be wise they became fools comes to mind, especially when we see those who are presented as the most learned scientists talking as if evolutionary theories are now true without doubt. The masses then follow on.

There are those in the Christian world whose central ministry is to respond to the challenge of evolutionists and I would not consider myself anywhere near as experienced as they are. I offer a few thoughts, however, resulting perhaps from my background in mathematics.

  1. It is rather like the story of the boy who spoke up when the emperor with no clothes passed by, and when everyone else was pretending that they had not noticed he was naked – a simple observation. We hear so much about big projects like CERN and from those who analyse data from the Hubble Telescope, giving us the impression that the laws of the universe will soon be known so that we can trace our origins right back to a perceived Big Bang. The scientific instruments are amazing and the pictures of the universe are breathtaking, but there is no way that we can use them to explain the origins of the universe. We are only able to describe the universe through observations within it. We cannot be objective and see it from outside. We could come up with theories for the next million years, if we were to have that long, trying to explain how elementary particles of matter exploded and spread out to make the universe as we know it, but we will not be able to work out where those first particles came from.

  2. Scientists are digging up bones here and there and claiming insights into a theory of the evolution of living creatures. They draw sweeping conclusions on very small amounts of data. The biblical account of a Great Flood around 5000 years ago should be the starting point. One study that verifies this is that of population growth. If we were to do an analysis of the growth of the human population over 5000 years, seeing how quickly it doubles, it is very clear that 8 people can multiply to 8 billion in that time. Take a pen and paper and see how it works, 8 doubling to 16 within a generation, 16 to 32 in another generation, 32 to 64, 64 to 128, 128 to 256, 256 to 512, 512 to 1024, and so on and it is surprising how quickly we find that a population of 3 billion doubles to 6 billion – it is surprising how few generations it takes. The wars, sickness and famines from time to time have a bearing on the rate of doubling, but there is just no time for evolution to accommodate this sort of growth in human population. In our generation alone we have added two billion to our numbers. Humans must have been on this planet a very short time.

  3. There is another mathematical argument, this time from the realm of probability theory. To get an idea of how probability theory works, consider something as simple as tossing a coin. Toss it once and there is a 50% probability of getting a head. Toss it twice and there is just a 25% probability of getting two heads. Toss it three times and there is a 12.5% probability of getting a head three times in a row. Continuing in this way, in just 11 tosses of the coin there is a probability of less than 0.1% that the coin tosses result in all heads.

There is more than 99.9% probability that you will not get something as simple as a head on each of eleven consecutive tosses of a coin – very unlikely.

This is the simplest example of probability. It illustrates how unlikely it is for something to happen when a series of chance happenings are needed.

Look at the world around, how complicated life is. It would take an enormous number of evolutionary steps, much more complex than the tossing of a coin, to start with simple physical particles and arrive at the universe as we see it. Astronomer Royal, Fred Hoyle, is reported to have said that it is more likely that a scrap yard would, of its own volition, transform itself into a Jumbo Jet than for the universe to come about by chance. In fact it is much more likely to get that Jumbo Jet, but no such thing has ever happened by chance.

If we could do the probability calculations to see how likely the universe evolved through a series of chance steps, as we are able to do for predicting how often a head will come up when tossing a coin, we would get an extremely small probability that the universe and all that is in it came about through evolution.

Suppose we put the probability as 0.0000000000000……1%.. This means that it is 99.9999999…..% likely that the universe did not evolve by chance. In other words it is almost impossible, on mathematical theory alone, that the universe evolved through a random process rather than through design. Bear in mind that in statistics, a scientist will usually reject a hypothesis if it is found less than 5% probable, so it is extremely bad science to accept infinitesimally small probabilities for a theory. Evolutionary theory is extremely less likely than 5% probability, almost impossible, and one wonders why scientists don’t reject it. One might suspect it is the following. If the universe came about by design then there has to be a designer. It is the designer who made it. Since the designer must have made it from outside of the universe (which was not yet formed) then it is made in a way that we cannot explain with tools made out of the material of the universe. This origin of the universe we call Creation.

Put another way, on maths alone, there is an infinitesimally small chance that there is no Creator and there is a 99.999999999…% probability (almost certain) that there is a Creator. These are the facts that evolutionists either do not face or do not want us to know. No wonder the Psalmist understands that the Heavens declare the Glory of God – Psalm 19.

In effect, an evolutionist is prepared to gamble his eternal life on an infinitesimally small probability and lead others down the same path. On maths alone it is so near a certainty that the universe was designed and created that it is foolish to say otherwise. Yet, it is surprising the lengths to which people will go in order to avoid facing up to their Creator, humbling themselves and admitting their need.

Those who know their Creator through repentance and faith realise that mathematics is not the real key despite the above argument. The Creator through His Creation calls out to all people and we are wise to heed the call, be honest about our need and turn to Him.

We must not be beguiled by the shallowness of evolutionary science, despite the wonder that scientific instruments reveal to us of the universe around us. The instruments bring awe and wonder but the evidence points us to our Creator.